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Corn: Futures are called 2 to 3 cents higher following overnight gains of 2 to 2 1/4 cents. The late collapse on Friday has the market technically oversold. The foot-and-mouth disease tests in North Carolina have turned out negative. Traders were afraid to hold long positions ahead of the weekend with the threat of new foot-and-mouth disease problems popping up in the U.S. Friday's late decline came despite bullish fundamental news from the USDA reports. USDA lowered their planting intentions estimate below trade estimates at 76.69 million acres compared to trade estimates of 78.01 million. Planting delay concerns will be kept alive this week by the wet weather forecasts for the Midwest. Corn stocks as of March 1 were pegged at 6.034 billion bushels, down 14 million from trade estimates. We look for the market to be firm today with no new disease threats in the news and the outlook for less corn acreage this year. Soybeans: The futures market is called 3 to 4 cents higher. Overnight a/c/e trade was 3 1/2 to 4 cents higher. Buying interest should be generated with futures sitting right on contract lows. Foot-and-mouth disease concerns caused the market to crash late on Friday, but all tests from the North Carolina hog herd came out negative over the weekend. The market is oversold and should be able to bounce today despite the bearish acreage forecast on Friday. USDA pegged planting intentions at 76.66 million acres, up 780,000 acres from trade estimates. March 1 stocks were supportive last week at 1.405 billion bushels, down 24 million from trade estimates. The threat of new foot-and-mouth disease problems in the U.S. will limit rally attempts. Also, strong yields and good harvest progress in Brazil will be a limiting factor today. Wheat: The wheat markets are called 2 to 4 cents higher. Overnight a/c/e trade ended 1 1/2 to 4 cents higher. The late collapse on Friday came from the foot-and-mouth disease scare and the sharp losses in soybeans. However, the disease tests in North Carolina turned out negative and the markets are technically oversold. Look for prices to bounce with the supportive USDA reports on Friday helping the market rally. Total wheat acreage is expected to fall to 60.3 million acres this year, down 2.2 million from last year. Estimated acreage would be at the lowest level since 1973. Spring wheat plantings are expected to be 15.5 million acres, up from last year but slightly below pre-report trade estimates. USDA will begin the nationwide wheat condition ratings report this week. Winter wheat condition are well below last year, but forecasts for warmer weather in the Plains this week should help crop conditions.
Technicals:
Cattle: Futures are called steady to slightly lower. The continued threat of foot- and-mouth disease in the U.S. will weigh on the market despite the negative tests in the North Carolina swine herd on Friday. The U.S. exports 2.5 billion pounds of beef annually, and an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease would likely cripple exports. The negative media reports could also hurt domestic demand. However, boxed beef movement was very strong last week although at lower prices. Beef cutouts were mixed on Friday with Choice cuts up 46-47 cents and Select cuts down 34-76 cents. Hogs: The futures market is called steady to mostly higher. Cash prices are expected to be steady to firm as marketings remain light and packers need supplies. However, packer margins have narrowed with pork cutouts down $1.40 on Friday. The pork markets were not pressured as much on Friday as the other markets despite the foot-and-mouth tests on the North Carolina hog herd. U.S. pork exports total 1.3 billion pounds annually, about half that of beef. Friday's Hogs and Pigs report should be slightly bullish for the spring and summer months.
Cash Prices - March 30:
Greg Scheer is the daily market commentator for eDoane.com. |
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Doane Agricultural Services 11701 Borman Drive St. Louis, MO 63146 Phone: (314) 569-2700 FAX: (314) 569-1083 |
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